'09 Outlook for the Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers Outlook for 2009

The roller coaster ride for the 2008 Milwaukee Brewers came to a sudden end October 5 with a 6-2 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. October 6^th now becomes the 1^st day of the 2009 season for the crew. What can fans expect this off-season? To put it mildly Doug Melvin has his work cut out for him.

Is there any help on the way? Realistically Milwaukee only has 2 players that could impact the team in ’09. Matt Gamel (3b), a 2005 4^th round draft choice, and Alcides Escobar (SS), a Venezuelan who signed with the organization in 2003. The two have very different skill sets, but both are destined for the big leagues. Gamel is all bat and no glove, Escobar is major league ready with the glove but questions linger about his offensive ceiling. Both played most of the year at the AA level in ’08.

Gamel (22) .329 Avg, .932 OPS

Escobar (21) .328 Avg, .787 OPS

As a comparison Ryan Braun spent about half of his 22 year old season at AA Huntsville and put up a .956 OPS. Rickie Weeks put up numbers very similar to Escobar as a 21 year old at the same level. Weeks put up a .773 OPS as a 21 year old in AA, before tearing it up in AAA Nashville as a 22 year old.

The problem with Gamel and Escobar is the status of the current roster at the big league level. No one seems to project Gamel as a legitimate 3b due to his weak defense and JJ Hardy currently has a strangle hold at SS. Escobar’s situation could be cleared up with a position change or trade of JJ Hardy. Gamel’s future seems a bit cloudier. Does the organization project him at third or could a switch to a corner OF spot or even first base be in his future?

A trade of Prince Fielder for pitching could open a spot for the left handed Gamel. It would be a fairly large drop off in raw power from the first base slot, as Gamel projects as a more of a Lyle Overbay style gap hitter.

A trade of JJ Hardy would vault Escobar directly to the starting SS role in Milwaukee. Rumors are already swirling about Milwaukee’s willingness to deal Hardy to clear the way. Although with the lack of a legitimate 3b in the system Hardy might also be asked to move to the hot corner to sure up the defense on the left side of the diamond. An infield of Hardy-Escobar-Weeks-Fielder would likely provide a good mix of offense and defense.

Catcher Angele Salome and Starting Pitcher Jeremy Jefress both have high ceilings but won’t likely have any impact on the ’09 campaign. Both will likely top out at Nashville and get another year of seasoning before September call-up time.

Who will make up the starting rotation? Despite CC Sabathia’s best efforts Milwaukee will not go with a 3 man rotation in ’09. Milwaukee has very little chance of signing CC and will likely make an obligatory offer to FA Ben Sheets but watch him walk away. Losing your 1 and 2 starter in one off season is an uppercut that would wobble the knees of Fedor Emelianko, but Milwaukee must forge ahead. 22 year old Yovanni Gallardo will likely become the de facto #1 starter despite entering the season with 134 career innings pitched. Another youngster, 25 year old Manny Parra could vault into the number 2 role if Hardy or Fielder are not dealt for another arm. Parra enjoyed a decent sophomore season but needs to limit base runners to become a top notch starter. That will leave a group of several veterans vying for the remaining 3 spots. Dave Bush will most likely step into the #3 role after a season in ’08 in which he saw his whip drop from 1.40 in ’07 to 1.14. Jeff Suppan, who is due to make a boatload of cash in ’09, Seth McClung, Chris Capuano and Carlos Villanueva will all be given the chance to earn on of the last 2 slots. There don’t appear to be any arms in the farm system that could emerge as legitimate contenders for a ’09 spot.

What band of castaways will make up the bullpen? There probably should have been Palm trees, hammocks and coconut cream pies in Milwaukee’s bullpen after Melvin put together the happiest band of castaways since Giligan met the Globetrotters. Melvin did his best and made it interesting with Guillermo Mota, Soloman Torres, David Riske and Eric Gagne. Veterans one and all, but not exactly the results Melvin dreamed of. It is nearly impossible to predict what might happen. Gagne, Torres and Mota are FA’s but Milwaukee as a 3.9 million dollar option on Torres, who ended the season as the Brewers closer. All could be back, or none could be back.

One area of the pen that Milwaukee enjoyed in ‘08 at is with its lefty specialists. Mitch Stetter was a quiet hero and Brian Shouse was, well Brian Shouse. The 40 year old is another FA that Milwaukee will have to deal with. All signs point to Melvin patching together another bullpen without the help of the minor leagues. Clearly the pen could be improved if key players such as Fielder or Hardy end up on the block. As of now, the Brewers appear to be “closer-less”. There is virtually no way Melvin can seriously sell Torres to playoff spoiled Brewer fans as the closer and will have to make this position a priority.

Who’s on first? Probably Prince Fielder, but not so fast. After bashing his way through the league as a 23 year old in ’07, Prince took a fairly large step back offensively in ’08. Fielder dropped from a ‘07 1.013 OPS to .879 in ’08. Somewhere in the back of Doug Melvin’s mind he must be contemplating dealing Fielder to reconstruct his starting rotation and allow Matt Gamel to take over at 1^st. It would be a huge loss for the organization but might be necessary especially if CC Sabathia does the expected and cashes in someplace else. Fielder might not be the only Brewer infielder Doug Melvin fields calls about. JJ Hardy is sure to draw interest after ranking 5^th in MLB among all shortstops with an .821 OPS. If Hardy is able to secure a solid arm Melvin will be forced to listen, especially with the young Escobar ready to begin flashing the leather in front of big league crowds.

The rest of the infield situation for ’09 gets even more complicated. 2b Rickie Weeks is still loaded with potential but will be coming off a season in which he struggled in the 1^st half but regained his form after the all-star break. At some point the Brewers will need to figure out who the real Rickie Weeks is. Weeks put up a 2^nd half .829 OPS, which extended over the course of a full season would put him in the top 6 in all of MLB. It is those flashes that have Brewer fans craving a breakout season from Rickie, but continue to wait. The last 2 seasons have shown Weeks rebound from sub par 1^st halves but he has yet to put all his tools together. Rumors of his shift to CF seem far fetched. His skill set seem more appropriate for a corner OF spot, but much would need to happen to force that kind of change.

Third base is completely up for grabs in ’09. One could easily assume the starting 3b on opening day is not currently linked to the organization. This seems likely a position that will be filled via free agency or a trade. Bill Hall would be the starter if the season started today, but since ’06 Halls offense has basically derailed. Bill finished 24^th of 26 third basemen (with at least 375 plate appearances) in OPS. It gets even worse for Hall when you look at the internal splits. If you are a member of the Hall family or have a squeamish stomach, look away. Bill hall put up an OPS of .558 vs right handed pitchers. The problem was not just ’08 for Hall. Even a truckload of pink bats could not have helped him over the past 3 campaigns in which he compiled a measly .730 OPS vs righties. Unless something drastic happens, Hall will see himself only in platoon situations for a long, long time.

Outfield of Dreams? ’08 showed a threesome of Braun-Cameron-Hart. 2 all-stars and a gold glover. On paper this had the makings of a dominant group but things didn’t turn out that way. Ryan Braun is one of the top players in history after 2 seasons but the other two slots are much less definitive. Mike Cameron might be asked back but is a FA. It will cost Milwaukee 10 million to pick up his option, and despite 2 drops in the playoffs, is a top notch defender who hit 25 HRs despite not playing until May. Depending on what happens in the CC Sabathia sweepstakes Milwaukee might have to go with a cheaper option like Tony Gwynn Jr, who sounds just like his dad, but hasn’t hit like him yet.

That brings us to the sad case of Corey Hart. All the jokes about “sunglasses at night” might now be replaced with questions about whether or not those sunglasses are due to him being blind. After being voted into the All-Star game by the fans Corey took a tumble of historic proportions that saw his 1^st half OPS of .831 fall all the way to .759 at seasons end. It appeared that if the season would have gone another 20 games Hart would have struggled to keep that OPS on the sunny side of .700. A post All-Star game OPS of .659 has Brewer fans shuddering at the prospects of turning over that job to Hart without any competition for ’09. If that happens, it would be the worst “no bid” contract since Halliburton.

Take me to your leader. With all of the undecided issues about the Brewers, the last thing the team needs is to spend the entire winter not knowing who will be calling the shots. Ned Yost was deservedly axed with just 12 games to go and was replaced by interim skipper Dale Sveum. He of the Easter Sunday 1987 heroics did enough to get Milwaukee into the postseason but is basically an unknown commodity. A betting man would probably lay money on Milwaukee looking outside the organization to bring in a fresh face. Mike Hargrove has been mentioned, as many will be. Sveum could be back but owner Mark Antanasio will not accept anything less than the best in his quest to make Milwaukee a perennial contender. This is a team who has bounced from skippers like Davey Lopes to Jerry Royster to Ned Yost to Dale Sveum. To paraphrase a wise man in an entirely unrelated context, this team will always do the right thing as soon as they have exhausted every other alternative.

Those who don’t study the past are doomed to repeat it. So how did the offense stack up in ’08 against their positional counterparts? Well, as a means of comparison, lets use OPS and see how each of the starters did against the rest of the league. We will show you each OPS, the rank among players with at least 375 PA’s, the positional median and the amount above or below the positional median. (The median being the point at which half of the players are above and half are below).

Pos / Player/ OPS/ Pos Rank / Pos Median / +/- Median

C/ Kendall/ 651/ 22 of 23/ 729/ -78

1b / Fielder/ 879/ 7 of 28/ 824/ +55

2b / Weeks / 740/ 18 of 26/ 763/ -23

SS / Hardy / 821/ 5 of 28/ 730/ +91

3b / Hall/ 689/ 24 of 27/ 785/ -96

LF / Braun/ 888/ 7 of 26/ 820/ +68

CF /Cameron /809/ 11 of 31/ 785/ +24

RF /Hart/ 759/ 22 of 30/ 799/ -40

*Each of these counts only players with 375+ plate appearances.

See you in April. With all eyes now on Doug Melvin, Gord Ash and Mark Antanasio Brewer fans are most likely in for just as interesting an off season as they got in the regular seasons. Winter meetings, rumors, trades, free agents, spring training and 22 more Aaron Rodgers injuries. That’s all that separates Brewer fans from from their quest to get back to the post season and show the baseball world that the road to the World Championship must come through Miller Park. See you in April.