Explanation of Formula Picks

Everyone has a system right? I think the key to making good picks each week is to have a system and stick to it. Picking with your heart is usually a bad idea. That is exactly why I decided to come up with my own numbers based system that is completely void of emotion and relies only on numbers.

So whats the system? Well in a nutshell, it is several systems looked at in combination with the hopes that some sort of consensus can be detected. The concept is that, if you can find several systems that are all successful on their own, then comparing all of them to find common ground could be better than looking at each individually. I did some investigation to identify who the top documented cappers were and feed their information into an Excel spreadsheet.

The entire point of the system is to use a formula in the attempt to find vulnerability in the line or spread on the game. That's not exactly brain surgery but coming up with consistent picks is not easy no matter what you do.

There are a couple of ways to use existing systems to create your own. You can simply look at four systems and say....

System one likes the home team by 3 vs the spread
System two likes the home team by 4 vs the spread
System three likes the home team by 2 vs the spread
System four likes the home team by 1 vs the spread

In this scenario you can look at it 2 ways. 1st you can clearly see that all 4 systems like the home team, so there is a consensus. 2ND, you can disregard the consensus and just focus on the numbers. In this case the average between the 4 systems is the home team is favored by 2.5 points to beat the spread.

When I post picks, I will try to separate things out by consensus and average number. I will track which option is more successful as well.

I hope these picks help you have fun following the games.